Carling Cup Final

I haven't blogged about anything for a while now, the curse of being a final year student, but I found time to write a preview of the Carling Cup final on Sunday

Then the BBC published this; http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thefootballtacticsblog/2011/02/how_birmingham_can_unsettle_ar.html

And made most of the same points as me.
Anyway, here's my preview:

The big news from an Arsenal perspective is the injuries to Theo Walcott and Cesc Fabregas. The fact that they're not playing is obviously a big loss but won't affect the way Arsenal play. Arshavin will probably play instead of Walcott (although Bendnter could come in because of his height) and the man who comes in for Fabregas will probably be one from Diaby, Denilson or Rosicky. If he's fit I think Diaby will be Wenger's choice with Wilshere pushed further forward into the playmaking role. Denilson coming in would probably see a similar shift in the midfield three, whereas Rosicky would obviously be the playmaker if chosen.

The real interest in the game will be to see how Birmingham play. Their normal approach, and the widely-held idea of how to play against Arsenal is to defend deep and narrow, deny space between your midfield and defence, and look to exploit Arsenal's weakness in defending set pieces (they have conceded 51.9% of goals from them, the highest proportion in the Premier League. Stat from @optajoe). The best man for this tactic would be Nikola Zigic. Although his lack of pace would make it easy for Arsenal's defenders to hold their high line, being 6'8" tall makes him a clear aerial threat (he did score a header in the league game at the Emirates).

The better way, I think, to play against Arsenal is to use quick, mobile forwards (as West Brom did with Jerome Thomas and Peter Odemwingie) and Birmingham do have potential to do this with Cameron Jerome, Matt Derbyshire and the seemingly evergreen Obafemi Martins. The support from midfield that Craig Gardner provides (he's the joint top scorer with 7 goals this season) could also provide crucial and, as always, Arsenal's midfield will have to be alert defensively to track his runs.

The size of the pitch at Wembley will favour Arsenal (by affording them more space to work in) and the state of the turf could favour Birmingham but predictions go out of the window in a cup final don't they.

Here's to a good game and an end to the much-publicised trophy drought.