A plea for AFC

All the mainstream build-up to tonight's big Champions League encounter between Arsenal and Barcelona seems to be focused on a certain player (*cough* Fabregas *cough*) and whether Arsenal have learnt the lessons of last year's encounter (a 6-3 loss in the quarter-final) but here I'm going to make the case for the home side here.

First the stats:
Barcelona have never won an away game in the knockout stages of the Champions League under Pep Guardiola (drawn 5 and lost 1).
Barcelona have won just one of their last six Champions League away games.
Arsenal have conceded less than two goals in each of their last 11 home matches.
Arsenal are unbeaten in the 12 Champions League games they have played with Andrey Arshavin
Arsenal have not lost a home Champions League tie to a European team since Internazionale beat them 3-0 in 2003.
(stats from @optajoe, @orbinho, and soccerbase.com)

The key match-ups:
Messi (a shocking choice I know) vs. Song/Wilshere
- Messi's movement when he doesn't have the ball can cause as many problems and his mazy dribbles when he does have it so Arsenal's double pivot will have to concentrate hard on tracking his runs (the main cause of the first two goals at Camp Nou last year was Denilson and then Diaby letting Messi run off of them in the build up) and remain vigilant throughout the game.
Walcott vs. Maxwell/Abidal
- Barca's players themselves admit fearing Walcott's raw pace. His introduction turned last year's first leg and Maxwell no end of problems. If the Brazilian does play Arsenal have to exploit this area of the pitch again, and, with Carles Puyol injured, we may just see that.  Eric Abidal may have to move into the centre or  Guardiola may take a risk and use Abidal's pace at LB to counter Walcott (which would see Busquets or Mascherano at CB). Whoever plays at full back for the Catalans will be positioned high up the pitch so Walcott needs to make good use of any space that is afforded to him.

The other key factor in Arsenal's favour is the state of the squad as they come into the tie Arsene Wenger has called his team this year the 'real' Arsenal and it is easy to see why. Replacing Almunia, Silvestre, Denilson, Diaby, Rosicky, and Bendtner with Sczcesny, Djourou, Song, Wilshere, Fabregas and Van Persie is undoubtedly a vast improvement.

Defensively Arsenal's front four of Walcott-Fabregas-Van Persie-Nasri (or Arshavin) will have to work hard to press Barcelona coherently and effectively but they also have the necessary attributes to make swift transitions from defence to attack. Much has been made of Arsenal's attacking approach playing into Barcelona's hands but (as was shown with the second goal against Wolves on saturday) Arsenal also have the tools to exploit Barcelona's own attacking mindset. A return to the Arsenal mindset from earlier in the Wenger era would seem to be the blueprint for success tonight. Counter-attacking was a key weapon in the Gunners' arsenal when Henry, Ljungberg, Bergkamp, Pires et al were in the side. A resurrection of that style could work the 'miracle' that others seem to think they need tonight.

Disclaimer: I am fully willing to come back on here and take back everything I've just said if Arsenal lose badly tonight.